February 2nd — Groundhog day. The day where Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow or he doesn’t. This year (2019) he did not see his shadow indicating an early Spring, but is this true?

Well, we are now mid-March and Spring has yet arrive for most.

It’s been a cold winter across much of the country, especially in January and February. We had a cold snap that expanded through much of the mid-west and eastern seaboard.

But it’s now meteorological Spring and where is it?

Temperature outlook as of March 11, 2019. Forecast temperatures are for March 17-21, 2019. Courtesy: NOAA

The picture above is the forecast for temperatures extending into next week March 17-21. It shows that there is a good chance that the West Coast will see above average temperatures (in orange and red), while the Mid-West and East Coast will probably see below average which are shaded in blue.

This map leads us through the first day of Spring and for most of the country we probably won’t be in it just yet. Despite some areas seeing some flowers starting to bloom. That’s partly related to the amount of sunlight.

The next map, shown below, is for a few days after the first image and it gets tricky. There is generally less confidence in maps are are made far out from the current date. And this should be taken with a grain of salt… and so should the next few maps.


Temperature outlook as of March 11, 2019. Forecast temperatures are for March 19-25, 2019. Courtesy: NOAA

The 8-14 day outlook still shows above average temperatures in the west and below average in the south, or the probability of seeing such temperatures. The only difference is there is a mass of possible warmth in Wisconsin and Michigan. Maybe Spring is on the way?

Well, the next one certainly does show a different trend depending on where you are. But remember, these forecasts are forecasts and the weather can change at any moment.


Temperature outlook as of March 8, 2019. Forecast temperatures are for March 23- April 5, 2019. Courtesy: NOAA

For this outlook, still warm air is said to be placed in the West and for a change along the East Coast. For those in the Mid-West Spring is still slow to arrive. How about that Groundhog now? True for some?

I’m not trying to bash the Groundhog, since after all it is all for fun. But when is Spring set to arrive? Based on the analysis and forecasts shown above… it depends on where you area. The West Coast will likely stay above average, while the East Coast will flip flop between above and below average.

But there is one guarantee for all… on March 20th at 5:58 EDT… astronomical Spring will officially arrive for everyone. This is when the suns direct rays will cross the equator and begin the trek to the Tropic of Cancer.

Groundhog Photo courtesy: IN.gov

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